Cognitive Biases
Anchoring Bias
Anchoring bias is the tendency for an initial number to pull subsequent judgements toward it, even when that number is arbitrary or irrelevant. Estimates adjust away from the anchor but typically not far enough, so whoever states a figure first shapes the range everyone else reasons within.
By Tajammal MaqboolFounder & Developer
Relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the 'anchor') when making subsequent estimates or decisions.
Example: A jacket marked down from $500 to $300 feels like a steal — only because $500 grabbed you first.
What it looks like
In a salary negotiation
“The role is budgeted at £45,000 — does that work for you?”
Why it fails: Every counter-offer now forms around £45,000. A candidate who would have asked £60,000 unprompted typically lands well below it, having adjusted from the stated figure rather than from their own valuation.
In a retail listing
“Was £299 — now £149.”
Why it fails: The crossed-out price sets the reference point for what the item is worth, so £149 reads as value gained rather than money spent. The anchor need never have been a real selling price.
In a project estimate
“Do you think this will take about two weeks?”
Why it fails: Asking with a number attached shifts the estimate toward it. The same question asked openly regularly produces materially different answers from the same engineer.
Practice
5 questions. Answer each one, then read why the tempting wrong answers are wrong.
Frequently asked
- Does anchoring only affect numerical judgements?
- It is clearest and best documented with numbers, but related framing effects appear with non-numerical starting points too — an initial description or category can shape subsequent assessment in similar ways. The numerical case is where the effect is easiest to measure and most reliably demonstrated.
- How do I use anchoring ethically in a negotiation?
- Making the first offer is legitimate and often advantageous, provided the number is defensible and you can say why. The line falls at anchors constructed to mislead — fictitious original prices, or figures presented as market rates that are not. Anchoring with a real number is negotiation; anchoring with a fake one is deception.
- Is anchoring bias well replicated?
- The basic effect is one of the more robust findings in judgement research and has replicated widely across domains and populations. Specific effect sizes vary considerably by design, and some individual classic studies have attracted replication scrutiny, so treat the phenomenon as solid and any single reported magnitude as approximate.